Wednesday, 3 March 2010

Haaretz: In Iranian-Israeli brinksmanship, Obama is powerless

Bruce Wolman, in an important article over on Mondoweiss, comments on how Aluf Benn in this morning’s Ha’aretz describes an increasingly dangerous poker game being played out over Iran’s nuclear program. With war now being threatened, "the stakes are constantly rising with the expectations that one of the players will recognize his weakness, blink and leave the table."

Player one, the Prime Minister of Israel has certainly upped the ante since taking office.

"Netanyahu managed to convince the world that Israel is on the verge of a preemptive war to try to foil Iran’s nuclear program. His speeches on a second Holocaust and Amalek, the acceleration of military preparations, the exercises on the Home Front, the distribution of gas masks and even the stockpiling of dollars by the Bank of Israel all suggest that Israel is preparing to strike Iran, as it did when it attacked the nuclear plants in Iraq and Syria."

According to Benn, Player two – the President of Iran, Mahmoud Amadinejad – recently raised Netanyahu’s ante, "when he posed the destruction of the Zionist regime not merely as a religious-ideological ambition, but as a practical goal."

It’s not clear what the third player, President Obama, is going to bet, as he "holds the weakest hand."

"This is so because of domestic political weakness and because he can’t seriously threaten Ahmadinejad or Netanyahu. Obama doesn’t want to attack Iran himself and will find it hard to restrain Israel at the moment of truth."

How did the tail wind up so successfully wagging the dog? For weeks the President of the United States has been "airlifting senior officials [to Israel] to ask Netanyahu to hold back." You might think the world’s last remaining superpower and leader of the "international community" would be able to keep its number one aid recipient under wraps, but that does not seem to be the case."

Read more of Wolman here